Friday, October 10^th, 2025

How to “HEDGE” Against the Federal Government “SHUTDOWN”

The “SHUTDOWN” of the federal government last week has deprived investors of the one thing they need the most to make INFORMED decisions: “INFORMATION”.

Until the “SHUTDOWN” is over, data from any of the federal agencies that generate those numbers will NOT be available.

For example, we were supposed to see the EMPLOYMENT figures for September last Friday (October 3^rd, 2025). But since the “SHUTDOWN” began earlier that week, we can only wonder what those numbers produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) might have looked like.

Last week an employment report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated PRIVATE companies are hiring the FEWEST workers since the GREAT RECESSION sixteen (16) years ago. However, those numbers could be quite different from the more substantial survey conducted by the BLS.

If the “SHUTDOWN” ends in a WEEK or two, then the missing data probably won’t matter much.

BUT, if it goes on for more than a MONTH as happened the last time the government “SHUTDOWN” in 2019, by the time we see those numbers the stock market may be far removed from where it otherwise might have been.

For that reason, heightened VOLATILITY should be expected and YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY should “GOVERN OURSELVES ACCORDINGLY” as a INTELLIGENT way to protect our portfolios from the possibility of a “MAJOR” stock market move AFTER the government REOPENS.

The problem is, the stock market may MOVE UP or DOWN depending on what the MISSING NUMBERS turn out to be.

One Way or Another

Since we don’t know which DIRECTION the stock market will go, YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY can implement our ATWWI “ROTHSCHILD” STRATEGY….

We can do that by employing an OPTIONS STRATEGY known as a “LONG STRADDLE”.

That means we can BUY both a “CALL” and a “PUT” OPTION using the SAME “STRIKE PRICE” and “EXPIRATION DATE” on an underlying security that we believe is likely to react strongly to INCREASED STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY.

An obvious candidate for such a trade is the CBOE Volatility Index (“VIX”), which is sometimes referred to as the “FEAR INDEX” since it reflects the degree to which “PROFESSIONAL” PORTFOLIO MANAGERS think the “RISK” of a stock market “CORRECTION” is IMMINENT.

If you are not familiar with the VIX, it is a RATIO OF SHORT-TERM “PUT” OPTIONS versus “CALL” OPTIONS on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). When “PROFESSIONAL” INVESTORS are feeling “ANXIOUS” and BUY more “CALLS” than “PUTS”, the VIX goes UP. The OPPOSITE is also true.

At the start of this week (October 6^th-10^th, 2025), the VIX was trading near $17. That is very close to where it has been trading for the past five (5) months and is also close to its LONGER-TERM HISTORICAL AVERAGE.

In other words, WALL STREET does NOT perceive much NEAR-TERM “RISK” to the stock market despite the lack of ECONOMIC DATA until the “SHUTDOWN” is over.

TIMING Is The “KEY”

To execute a LONG STRADDLE on the VIX, we must identify an EXPIRATION DATE and a STRIKE PRICE for both OPTIONS. For the sake of this example, I will use the $17 STRIKE PRICE that EXPIRES on November 19^th, 2025.

A few days ago, that “CALL” OPTION could be purchased for $4.50 while the “PUT” OPTION was going for $0.25.

That means it would cost $4.75 to purchase both OPTIONS. For this trade to be profitable, the VIX must RISE ABOVE $21.75 or FALL BELOW $12.25 within the next five (5) weeks.

The odds of the VIX FALLING BELOW $12.25 are low. That has not happened in a long time.

BUT, the chances of it RISING ABOVE $21.75 are much better. In April (2025), it briefly SPIKED ABOVE $60 when the Trump administration introduced its “LIBERATION DAY” reciprocal TARIFF plan.

Let’s say the government REOPENS around the end of this month (October 2025) and we learn that the economy is in much WORSE shape than we thought.

In that case, the VIX might RISE ABOVE our “BREAKEVEN” PRICE of $21.75.

If it gets up to $25.50, the combined value of both OPTIONS would be at least TWICE what we paid for them.

Of course, this type of trade is not without “RISK”. If the government does NOT REOPEN by the time these OPTIONS EXPIRE, then INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS and PROFESSIONAL MONEY MANAGERS may have reason to suddenly LOAD UP on SPY “PUT” OPTIONS.

If the government reopens BEFORE THESE OPTIONS EXPIRE and we discover that the economy is in better shape than we thought, the VIX probably won’t move enough for this trade to be profitable.

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Tuesday, September 16^th, 2025

Long Term U.S. Treasury Bonds Could Be The Biggest “WINNER” From Upcoming Rate Cut(s)

Since the conclusion of the “GREAT RECESSION” 18 (eighteen) years ago, the yield of the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond has mostly traded in a range between 2.5 percent to 5.0 percent. The notable exception occurred five (5) years ago when the FED pursued its ZERO INTEREST RATE POLICY (ZIRP) after the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

For about a year, those bonds were yielding LESS than 2.0 percent as investors “FEARED” that the global financial markets might collapse. Fortunately, that didn’t happen, and bond yields recovered quickly as the FED allowed rates to RISE.

In May, the yield INCREASED above 5.1 percent as WALL STREET “FRETTED” that the recently enacted import tariffs would be inflationary. Instead of a rate CUT by the FED that the WHITE HOUSE was “DEMANDING”, a rate INCREASE seemed possible if retail prices started soaring to reflect the cost of those tariffs.

So far, that hasn’t happened. In July (2025) the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index reflected a 0.3. percent monthly INCREASE in “core” PCE, which excludes FOOD and ENERGY prices. Over the past twelve (12) months it grew by 2.9 percent, higher than the FED’s 2.0 percent “TARGET”t rate but still within tolerance.

Meanwhile, the EMPLOYMENT situation in the U.S. grown considerably “DAMPENED”. The jobs report for July (2025) showed a huge DECREASE in new job openings. At the same time, the numbers for June and May (2025) were revised DOWNWARD by a substantial amount.

Although the national UNEMPLOYMENT rate ROSE only slightly to 4.2 percent, a sudden DOWNTURN in NEW JOB OPENINGS usually presages an INCREASE in UNEMPLOYMENT. That is why everyone on WALL STREET was waiting on “PINS and NEEDLES” for the August (2025) jobs report that was disappointing

Into that fray steps the 30-year T-bond. It is widely viewed as a proxy for the “LONG-TERM HEALTH” of the U.S. economy. A yield BELOW 3 (three) percent is indicative of a “WEAK” economy that requires CENTRAL BANK intervention in the form of LOWER INTEREST RATES to stimulate CONSUMER SPENDING.

A yield ABOVE 5 (five) percent suggests an “OVERHEATED” economy that may require rate INCREASES to cool it off. That’s what happened a few years ago after the ZIRP had its intended effect of stimulating the economy. Despite an unprecedented series of rate INCREASES commencing in March 2022 that RAISED the FED’s POLICY RATE by 500 (five hundred) basis points (5 percentage points), the stock market “RALLIED” strongly the following year.

Now, WALL STREET is “DEMANDING” a series of rate CUTS to justify higher stock prices. If that happens then BOND PRICES should RISE as YIELDS FALL.

If rate CUTS fail to “IGNITE” the economy, then BONDS MAY “OUTPERFORM” STOCKS until a new “EQUILIBRIUM” between the two (2) asset classes has been established.

You don’t need to be an “INSTITUTIONAL” investor with millions of dollars to invest to own U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES. However, it probably makes more “SENSE”/”CENTS” for “INDIVIDUAL” investors to do so via an EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND (ETF) or CLOSED-END FUND (CEF). That way, YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY can obtain portfolio “DIVERSIFICATION” and “PROFESSIONAL” MANAGEMENT at a LOW COST.

One such fund is the VANGUARD LOND-TERM TREASURY ETF (VGLT). It currently generates a 30-day SEC annual yield of 4.9 percent, pays DIVIDENDS MONTHLY, and has a very LOW MANAGEMENT FEE of .03 percent.

Five (5) years ago, VGLT’s share price “SOARED” above $100 while the FED was aggressively CUTTING interest rates…

Three (3) years later VGLT’s share price had “FALLEN” below $50 after the FED began INCREASING interest rates.

That is precisely why I think now may be a good time to consider, upon completion of the appropriate ATWWI “DRILL DOWN”, adding VGLT to your/our portfolio(s).

If the FED is once again “FORCED” into the position of CUTTING rates, LONG-TERM U.S. TREASURY BONDS could end up being the biggest “WINNER” of them all.

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Friday, September 12^th, 2025

Is Paying Off Your Mortgage Early a Good Idea???

For many people, the thought of living “MORTGAGE-FREE” carries powerful “EMOTIONAL” appeal.

*No more monthly payments.

*No interest charges eating away at your budget.

*No bank holding a lien on your house.

It’s the financial equivalent of removing a heavy backpack you have carried for decades.

BUT, before you start sending extra payments to your lender, it’s important to ask a simple question: Is paying off your mortgage early really the smartest financial move???

The answer, like so many financial decisions, isn’t simply “BLACK” or “WHITE”. It depends on multiple factors such as:

*Your “STAGE OF LIFE”

*Your other OBLIGATIONS

*Your TAX SITUATION, and even

*Your PERSONALITY.

Let me break it down…

When Paying Off Early Makes “SENSE”/”CENTS”

1. Nearing Retirement

If you are approaching retirement, eliminating your mortgage can significantly reduce your fixed expenses. For someone living on SOCIAL SECURITY, PENSION INCOME, or DISTRIBUTIONS from RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS, every dollar of freed-up cash flow matters. Not having to make a mortgage payment can provide “PEACE OF MIND”—and make your retirement savings stretch further.

2. You Have Cleared High-Interest Debt

A mortgage is typically the cheapest form of “DEBT” you will ever incur. If you still have CREDIT CARDS at 20%(+), AUTO LOANS at 8%(+), or STUDENT LOANS in the 6–7%(+) range, those should take “PRIORITY”. But once those are gone, the mortgage stands out as the last “MAJOR” LIABILITY and paying it down can simplify your financial picture.

3. The “EMOTIONAL” Value of Debt Freedom

Not every decision is purely about numbers. Some investors thrive on OPTIMIZING RETURNS, while others feel constant stress knowing they OWE MONEY—even at low interest rates. If paying off the mortgage helps you “SLEEP BETTER AT NIGHT”, that’s a benefit you can’t measure on a spreadsheet.

4. When Cash Returns Fall Short of Mortgage Rates

If your mortgage rate is 6% and your idle cash is generating 4% in a MONEY MARKET FUND, you are effectively LOSING yield. In this scenario, putting money toward the mortgage may deliver a better AFTER-TAX RETURN, especially if your investment alternatives are “CONSERVATIVE”.

When Paying Off Early Is NOT the Strategy/Decision

1. You Locked in a Low Rate

Millions of homeowners refinanced during the pandemic-era LOWS, with rates UNDER 3%. If you are one of them, your mortgage is “CHEAP” money. In that case, your dollars may work harder elsewhere—whether in:

*DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS yielding 4–5%(+)

*INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS

*HIGH YIELD SAVINGS ACCOUNTS (HYSA) or even

*LONG TERM CDs

NOTE: Make sure your “NET” YIELD exceeds inflationary rate.

2. Liquidity Takes a Hit

Money used to pay down a mortgage is money you can’t easily access. If an unexpected expenses INCREASE, you can’t just “WITHDRAW” from your HOME EQUITY. You would need to:

*REFINANCE

*Open a HOME EQUITY LINE OF CREDIT (HELOC) or

*SELL the property

All of which involve TIME, FEES and “UNCERTAINTY”. Keeping some “LIQUIDITY” is essential, particularly if you do NOT already have a “ROBUST” EMERGENCY FUND.

3. You Are Missing Tax Benefits

While it’s true that fewer Americans ITEMIZE DEDUCTIONS since the STANDARD DEDUCTION was INCREASED, MORTGAGE INTEREST REMAINS DEDUCTABLE for many households—particularly those with HIGHER INCOMES or LARGER LOAN BALANCES. Giving up that deduction may tilt the “MATH” against early payoff!!!

4. Retirement Contributions Take a Back Seat

This is a BIG one. If accelerating mortgage payments prevents you from MAXING OUT your 401(k), FUNDING your IRA, or taking advantage of EMPLOYER MATCHES, you may be sacrificing “FUTURE WEALTH” for the sake of “DEBT REDUCTION”.

NOTE: Your retirement accounts not only grow TAX-DEFERRED (or TAX-FREE in the case of ROTHs) but also keeps your money LIQUID and DIVERSIFIED.

A Framework for the Decision

Think of the mortgage payoff decision as a “BALANCING ACT” between three (3) competing priorities:

• Return on investment: Could your money generate more yield/profit elsewhere???
• Risk management: Does paying off the loan reduce stress or exposure???
• Liquidity and flexibility: Will you still have cash available for emergencies or opportunities???

In some circumstances, paying off early may be the right move. BUT, if paying off the loan “COMPROMISES” LIQUIDITY or prevents you from funding HIGHER-YIELDING INVESTMENTS, the “MATH” often argues against it!!!

Legacy Planning Angle

Another often-overlooked factor is what happens to your home after you are gone. If you leave a paid-off house to heirs, they inherit the property without the burden of “DEBT”. That can be a significant advantage, especially for children who may not have the resources to handle a large monthly mortgage.

On the flip side, if most of your “NET” WORTH is tied up in “HOME EQUITY”, your heirs may face tough decisions about whether to “SELL” or “BORROW” against it, and they may not agree on a course of action.

The Bottom Line

Paying off your mortgage early isn’t a “ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL” decision. For some, it provides “EMOTIONAL” RELIEF, LOWER EXPENSES during retirement, and a “GUARATEED” RETURN that rivals “CONSERVATIVE” investments. For others, it can mean giving up LIQUIDITY, TAX ADVANTAGES, or BETTER MARKET RETURNS.

The best approach is to run the numbers “OBJECTIVELY”, WEIGH THE TRADE-OFFS, and—just as importantly—factor in how you feel about “DEBT”. A mortgage is both a FINANCIAL and PSYCHOLOGICAL “OBLIGATION”. Whether you “KEEP IT” or “KILL IT” should reflect your broader financial goals, not just the desire to own your home “OUTRIGHT”.

At the end of the day, the smartest financial strategy is the one that leaves you with both “STABILTY” and “PEACE OF MIND”….

PEACE & BLESSINGS,

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

CONSULTING and MARKET RESEARCH: The Knowledge Business at “RISK”

The CONSULTING and MARKET RESEARCH industries are also facing new headwinds. AI excels at synthesizing vast amounts of information, identifying trends, and even generating polished reports—functions that have HIStorically commanded premium fees.

Gartner (IT) shocked investors recently when it cut revenue forecasts, and the stock plummeted 30% in a single week. Analysts pointed to the RISE of AI-driven research tools that can produce “ACTIONABLE INSIGHTS” without the steep subscription fees Gartner charges.

This is a classic case of knowledge “COMMODITIZATION”. Once upon a time, accessing deep datasets and expert analysis required firms like Gartner. Now, increasingly sophisticated AI agents can replicate much of that functionality—sometimes for “FREE”. The industry isn't disappearing overnight, but the pricing power of traditional research and consulting models is weakening.

Why These Sectors Are “VULNERABLE”

What ties these industries together???

A few key characteristics:

• HIGH HEADCOUNT, LOW AUTOMATION: Companies with large workforces performing repeatable tasks are ripe for AI substitution.

• CONTENT “COMMODITIZATION”: When AI can generate art, copy, code, or data analysis instantly, the value of human-created content diminishes.

• KNOWLEDGE REPLICATION: AI can “MIMIC” the work of analysts, consultants, and recruiters, undermining fee-based models.

YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY should recognize AND monetize the fact that in many cases, these are “LEGACY” business models colliding with “DISRUPTIVE” technology—a dynamic that rarely ends well for incumbents.

What Should YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY Do To Monetize This Occurrence???

If you are a ATWWI FAMILY MEMBER worried about AI-related “DISRUPTION”, here are some ATWWI strategies, techniques, and paradigms that will minimize your concerns:

1. Look for AI “ADOPTERS” not “RESISTERS”. Companies that embed AI into their platforms—rather than fight against it—are better positioned to survive. Adobe (ADBE), for instance, still has a chance if the company can integrate AI in ways that make its creative tools indispensable.
2. DIVERSIFY across sectors. Don't overexpose your portfolio to industries at HIGH “RISK” of AI displacement. Consider balancing with UTILITIES, HEALTHCARE, or INFRASTRUCTURE—areas where human labor and regulation provide more durable “MOATS”.
3. Watch the “DISRUPTORS”. Firms enabling AI-driven STAFFING, CONSULTING, or DESIGN may prove to be tomorrow's “WINNERS”. Just as Uber (UBER) “DISRUPTED” TAXIS”, AI-native companies could “DISRUPT” these incumbents.
4. Be “CAUTIOUS” with VALUATIONS. If a stock is cheap, ask yourself whether it's undervalued or simply in structural decline. A 30% drop in companies like Shutterstock (SSTK) may not be a bargain if the core business model is eroding.

Final Thought(s)

Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the most powerful technological shifts in decades. But while many investors are focused on the “WINNERS”, it's equally important to identify and monetize the “LOSERS” via the utilization of various ATWWI strategies, techniques, and paradigms.

From CREATIVE PLATFORMS and STAFFING FIRMS to RESEARCH CONSULTANTS, some business models may simply NOT survive in their current form.

For YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY, the message is straightforward: don't just chase AI “HYPE”—also pay attention to where AI is quietly DESTROYING “VALUE”!!!

In a world of “CREATIVE DESTRUCTION”, knowing how to MONETIZE the occurrence will get us “P.A.I.D.”!!!

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Monday, August 4^th, 2025

How Millionaires Reach Seven+ (7+) Figures

The FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) reported that the average NET WORTH of American families topped $1 million for the first time, surging 34% from $749,000 in 2019.

INFLATION rose sharply over this period, too.

Yet, even after INFLATION, real average wealth was up 23%, according to the FED’s Survey of Consumer Finances.

This is something to celebrate. (Perhaps especially if you’re one of these new millionaires.)

MONEY gives you choices – not least of all the “FREEDOM” to choose how to live your life.

Yet the “GRINCH” isn’t just a fictional character created by Dr. Seuss. Many are ANGRY about our nation’s RISING “WEALTH”.

Why???

Because “PROSPERITY” creates “INEQUALITY”... And that’s “UNFAIR”!!!

Or is it???

Let’s take a closer look at what is happening and why…

That nation’s average household NET WORTH of more than $1 million is skewed by the relatively small number of “MULTIMILLIONAIRS” and “BILLIONAIRES”.

About 16 million Americans – just over 12% – have a net worth that EXCEEDS $1 million. Approximately 8 million families are “MULTIMILLIONAIRES”.

These households tend to have HIGHER incomes. They generally earn/generate between $150,000 and $250,000 a year.

Yet millions of families with “MIDDLE-CLASS” incomes have also joined The “SEVEN _FIGURE CLUB”.

What are they doing that other “MIDDLE-CLASS” families aren’t???

They are being “SMART” about money…

That means they are PAYING DOWN HIGH-INTEREST DEBT ASAP, CONTRIBUTING TO AN IRA OR 401(k), BUILDING EQUITY IN THEIR HOME and, GENERATING BETTER-THAN-AVERAGE RETURNS FROM THE STOCK MARKET.

Over the past few years, in particular, Americans accumulated trillions of dollars more than they were on track to save before the pandemic.

COVID-19 relief and stimulus spending – along with a government shutdown that prevented them from blowing it – is one reason.

Investments increased. Interest rates rose. As a result, the total assets in MONEY MARKET FUNDS recently hit an ALL TIME HIGH of nearly $6 trillion and the stock market continues to RISE.

Stock prices are considerably higher than they were just five (5) years ago in 2020.

That’s good news… But only if you were a trader/investor.

Still more good news if you’re one of the 61% of Americans who own equities, either directly or through MUTUAL FUNDS and ETFs.

In short, the recent jump in the number of “MILLIONAIRE” families had something to do with government “LARGESSE”.

BUT, it had more to do with “PERSONAL” financial decisions.

Let’s set aside for a moment the families who generate too little to trade/invest.

(We should have compassion for these people.)

Tens of millions of Americans with “AVERAGE OR ABOVE-AVERAGE INCOMES” are CONSUMERS (not PRODUCERS) who splurge on DESIGNER BRANDS, DRIVE EXPENSIVE DEPRECIATING VEHICLES, SPEND EXCESSIVELY, and made a “CONSCIOUS” decision NOT to TRADE/INVEST…

Some would say they are “REAPING WHAT THEY SOWED”!!!

Simply put, they didn’t “SOW”.

After all, making “INTELLIGENT” investments is like PLANTING SEEDS.

Just as the “TINY” acorn turns into a “MIGHTY” oak, small investments – left alone to COMPOUND over years or even decades – will turn an “AVERAGE” investor into a “MILLIONAIRE” or “MUTIMILLIONAIRE”!!!

The people who SAVE and TRADE/INVEST obtain and maintain “WEALTH”.

They also leave those who don’t further behind.

But “UNEQUAL” does NOT necessarily mean “UNFAIR”...

All that is needed to become a “MULTIMILLIONAIRE is to put your money to “WORK”, TRADE/INVEST and, LET YOUR PROFITS COMPOUND!!!

YES, it takes “DISCIPLINE” and “PATIENCE”.

Yet tens of millions of Americans whose financial condition would define them as “POOR” today will one day be “RICH” (not necessarily “WEALTH”.

Most young adults in their 20s, for example, have no job security, no savings, no health insurance, no investment portfolio and a net worth of approximately zero.

Polls show that experience is NOT unusual.

For example, only 1% of families under 35 are “MILLIONAIRES”.

BUT, that rises “DRAMATICALLY” with age…

By ages 55 to 64, more than 1 in 5 families are “MILLIONAIRES”. In fact, 11% of those in this age group have a NET WORTH of over $5 million.

Don’t get me wrong. There is still plenty of ECONOMIC “STRUGGLE” in the U.S.!!!

Yet many of these people are lacking only DIRECTION – and a PLAN OF ACTION (POA). ..We are “HONORED” to provide BOTH here at the ATWWI.

A record number of Americans have reached “MILLIONAIRE” status…

Many millions more would like to.

If you are one of them, stick with the ATWWI FAMILY!!!

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.