Monday, June 30^th, 2025

How WALL STREET “POWERED” To a Record “HIGH” and What Comes Next…

Soooooo, what do we have here???

*A Trade WAR

*A “REAL” WAR with bombs dropped in the MIDDLE EAST and

*A barrage of insults hurled by the President of the UNITED STATES at the head of the FED

YET, the U.S. Stock Market has powered through all of that in the past few months to set a new record “HIGH” on Friday, June 27^th, 2025 and reward investors who stayed their ground through a volatile stretch. The S&P 500 closed at an ALL-TIME ”HIGH” of 6,173!!!

While WALL STREET can take a bow — and breath a sigh of relief — there is no let-up ahead…

The “PAUSE” Donald Trump put in effect for many TARIFFS expires in early July (2025).

Second-quarter profit reports and upcoming economic indicators could reveal more about the impact of the TARIFFS that did go into effect.

The FED could face a tricky decision on interest rates.

Here is a look at what has happened in markets and what could lie ahead…

Tariff “SHOCK”!!!

Trump appeared in the Rose Garden on Wednesday, April 2^nd, 2025 and announced steeper-than-expected TARIFFS on almost all U.S. trade partners. He especially targeted CHINA, eventually RAISING the DUTIES on IMPORTS from CHINA to 145%. Beijing retaliated by RAISING TARIFFS on U.S. goods to 125%.

Within just four (4) days, the S&P 500 FELL about 12%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average LOST nearly 4,600 points, or about 11%.

Trump shrugged off the stock market drop but he couldn’t ignore the signs of trouble in the BOND and FOREIGN EXCHANGE markets.

Tumbling prices for U.S. government BONDS raised worries that the U.S. TREASURY market was losing its status as the world’s “SAFEST” place to keep CASH.

The value of the U.S. dollar also SANK in another signal of diminishing “FAITH” in the United States as a “SAFE HAVEN” for investors.

Time To Pause

On Wednesday, April 9^th, 2025, Trump announced on social media a 90-day “PAUSE” for most of the tariffs he’d announced, except those against China. The S&P 500 “SOARED” 9.5% for one of its best days EVER!!!

In May (2025), the administration struck a trade deal with the UNITED KINGDOM. Then came the biggest news: The U.S. and CHINA said that they were temporarily rolling back most of the tariffs they had imposed on one another. The countries have indicated they have reached a deal, but details are scarce.

Markets briefly got spooked when Trump threatened tariffs against the EUROPEAN UNION, but he decided to hold off — until Wednesday, July 9^th, 2025 — as the countries continue to negotiate.

War and Oil

The Trade “WAR” was pushed out of the headline by a “REAL” WAR this month (June) as ISRAEL and IRAN attacked each other. The price of OIL SPIKED, threatening to INCREASE INFLATION and SLOW the GLOBAL ECONOMY.

A U.S. strike on IRANIAN NUCLEAR facilities was followed by a “CEASE FIRE” and OIL prices DROPPED sharply.

Relieved, WALL STREET resumed its climb toward a new RECORD “HIGH”.

Trump and the FED

Trump wants the FED to LOWER INTEREST RATES.

The FED says it needs to see the impact of Trump's tariffs before it can act. Trump has taken to regularly bashing JEROME POWELL, whose term as FED CHAIR expires next year (2026).

According to the WALL STREET JOURNAL, Trump could name his nominee to replace POWELL unusually early, in an attempt to undermine him. The drama could influence trading in the BOND and FOREIGN EXCHANGE markets, and by extension on WALL STREET.

STRONG PROFIT REPORTS for the first quarter (2025) helped offset the pressure from tariffs. Soon, companies will report results for the quarter ending June 30^th, 2025.

While WALL STREET analysts have LOWERED their expectations for EARNINGS GROWTH for the companies in the S&P 500, they still forecast SOLID GROWTH of 5%.

The AVERAGE QUARTERLY PROFIT GROWTH over the past five (5) years is 12.7%. Some companies withdrew profit forecasts amid the uncertainty created by tariffs, making forecasting even trickier.

Tariffs Redux???

In a sign that stocks are still sensitive to trade developments, the S&P 500 FELL briefly Friday, June 27^th, 2025, afternoon after Trump said he was halting trade negotiations with CANADA over its plans to continue with its tax on TECHNOLOGY firms.

The 90 day “PAUSE” with most countries ends Tuesday, July 8^th, 2025. There is considerable “UNCERTAINITY” about what’s going to happen after that.

Trump’s so-called “RECIPROCAL” TARIFFS -- aimed at countries with which the UNITED STATES runs trade deficits and ranging from 11% to 50% -- could snap back into place, something that risks “SPOOKING” the markets.

Trump could also say that his negotiators are making progress with some or all of the targeted countries and give them another reprieve. Members of his administration seemed to indicate last week that there is some “FLEXIBILITY” in the deadline.

Key Points

• The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 6,173 on Friday, June 27^th, 2025 showing resilience after a volatile stretch of trade war threats, MIDDLE EAST conflict, and Presidential insults aimed at the FED.
• President Trump’s 90-day TARIFF “PAUSE” expires Tuesday, July 8^th, 2025, raising the prospect of reinstated “RECIPROCAL” DUTIES of 11% to 50% and adding uncertainty ahead of second-quarter EARNINGS and “KEY” ECONOMIC REPORTS.
• Trade moves have driven dramatic market swings: a roughly 12% S&P “SELL-OFF followed April’s CHINA TARIFFS, then a one-day 9.5% “SURGE” when most levies were suspended, with fresh threats against the EU and CANADA again unsettling investors.
• Trump’s public attacks on FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL and signals of an early FED CHAIR nomination to push for RATE CUTS are injecting further “UNPREDICTABILITY” into BOND, CURRENCY and EQUITY MARKETS.

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Monday, June 16^th, 2025

Middle East “CONFLICT” Threatens To Exacerbate Inflationary Pressure On Some Goods/Products

Israel's attack on Iran Friday, June 13^th, 2025, has catapulted their long-running conflict into what could become a wider, more dangerous regional war and potentially drive prices higher for both businesses and households.

OIL and GOLD surged and the DOLLAR rose as markets retreated, signaling a flight to investments perceived as more “SAFE”.

After years of sky-high INFLATION in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans have become increasingly “LEERY” about the economy this year (2025) due to President Donald Trump's sweeping TARIFFS, though the impact so far has been somewhat “MUTED”.

The latest escalation in the MIDDLE EAST has the potential to cause widespread PRICE INCREASES that could set consumers back again.

Below, I identify what the ongoing “CRISIS” in the Middle East might mean for consumers…

Energy

Oil prices surged Friday, June 13^th, 2025 to their largest “GAIN” since the onset of Russia's war on Ukraine began more than three (3) years ago. If or when Israel's attack on Iran could impact gas prices, which have been in decline for nearly a year, isn't entirely clear.

Iran is one of the world’s major producers of oil, though sanctions by Western countries have limited its sales. If a wider war erupts, it could significantly slow or stop the flow of Iran’s oil to its customers. Energy prices have been held in check this year because production has remained relatively high, and demand for it low. A widening conflict could tilt that balance.

The loss of this export supply would wipe out the surplus that was expected in the fourth quarter of this year.

In the past, conflicts in the Middle East have sent energy price “SOARING” for extended periods but in recent years, because of the huge supply of oil, those spikes have been more fleeting.

Earlier this month (June/2025), the countries in the OPEC+ alliance decided to increase production again, which often pushes crude prices down. They hit a four(4) year low in early May/2025. That usually means cheaper gas, of which there is currently a SURPLUS.

According to the auto club organization AAA, the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. on Friday, June 13^th, 2025 was $3.13 per gallon, down from $3.46 a year ago (2024).

Shipping

Shipping costs were already on the RISE for a number of reasons. Cargo is being rerouted around the Red Sea where the U.S. began conducting air strikes on Yemen’s Houthis, the Iran-backed rebels who were attacking ships on what is a vital global trade route. This year (2025), companies have scrambled to import as many goods as possible before Trump’s tariffs kicked in, pushing demand, and prices to ship, higher.

The Baltic Dry Index, a key indicator of dry bulk shipping demand that tacks the movement of coal, iron ore, grains and more, is hitting eight (8) month highs.

The window for companies seeking to ship goods before the year's (2025) end is coming to a close this month. A widening “CONFLICT” in the Middle East would only drive prices HIGHER as those companies jostle to get goods from overseas as geopolitical tensions in the region rise.

Shares of ocean shipping companies like Teekay (TNK) and Frontline (FRO) rose sharply following Israel's attack.

Consumer Goods

HIGHER ENERGY PRICES can lead to elevated costs for a wide range of products because just about everything is made and transported using OIL or NATURAL GAS.

YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY will monetize the market’s “REACTION” to the ongoing Middle East “CONFLICT” via the utilization of our various ATWWI strategies/techniques on positions indexed to the ENERGY, SHIPPING and, CONSUMER GOODS sectors.

PEACE & BLESSINGS,

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Thursday, April 10th, 2025

Don't “PANIC”!!! Instead, Use These Two (2) Trading Tactics

If you've checked your brokerage account lately and thought, "Well, there goes my vacation, my kitchen remodel, and maybe my will to live" you're not alone.

Now, before you do something “DRASTIC” (like sell your whole portfolio to buy GOLD BARS and CANNED BEANS, take a deep breath.

HIStory is on your side…

Stocks FALL, yes, BUT they also RECOVER…

“QUALITY” holdings tend to bounce back “STRONGER” than ever, assuming you don't bail at the bottom.

BUT, staying “CALM” doesn't mean staying “PASSIVE”…

There are “INTELLIGENT”, STRATEGIC” steps YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY can take RIGHT NOW!!!

In this “WIZ” DAILY JOURNAL article, I will break down two (2) of them.

Because YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY deserve better than to be “COLLATERAL DAMAGE” in an “EGO WAR” among billionaires engaging in international “POLITRICKS”!!!

The markets have been “PLUNGING” in wild trading, and this time we can thank the current U.S. administration’s notion of "ECONOMIC STRATEGY," i.e., placing STEEP TARIFFS on ANYTHING that moves and PRETENDING that “ISOLATIONISM” in a GLOBAL ECONOMY won't BACKFIRE.

Hard to believe that just six (6) weeks ago, the U.S. stock market was strutting around at ALL-TIME HIGHS like it owned the place. Now, we're on the cusp of a “BEAR” market.

Trump's grand "LIBERATION DAY" tariff proclamation on April 2nd, 2025 triggered the worst market “MELTDOWN” since the COVID-induced INFLATION “CRISIS”.

The Trump ”TARIFF CRASH” isn't abstract hedge fund stuff. This is your HARD EARNED SAVINGS being tossed around like confetti at a clown funeral.

When the CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX), the so-called "FEAR GUAGE”, is ABOVE 20 (twenty), it generally indicates the market expects HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL VOLATILITY OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS. The VIX currently hovers ABOVE 56 (fifty six), a sign that investors are EXTREMELY “STRESSED”!!!

On Monday, April 7th, 2025, U.S. markets recorded their busiest trading day in at least 18 years, with approximately 29 billion shares changing hands. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a “DRAMATIC” INTRADAY SWING of 2,595 points.

Stocks ended the trading day mostly in the RED, after a short-lived rally lost steam.

On Tuesday, April 8th, 2025, another rebound attempt fizzled and the three main U.S. stock market indices ended the trading session in NEGATIVE territory.

Rumors of TARIFF negotiations proved “UNFOUNDED” and Trump remained defiant, dooming Mr. Market to another “MANIC-DEPRESSIVE” session.

Unless Trump's TARIFFS are RESCINDED or SCALED BACK, the market will remain under DOWNWARD PRESSURE... Buckle up!!!

The roller coaster won't end anytime soon. Consider the following “SURVIVAL” to “THRIVING” tactics:

1.         OPTION UTILIZATION

Part of my overall trading/investment strategy is to “BUY” stocks at CHEAP prices during “FEAR”-BASE general market “SELLOFFS”.

OPTIONS can facilitate this strategy…

For BUYING” STOCKS CHEAP during panicky market “SELLOFFS”, consider SELLING “PUTS”.

For example, let's say you would love to BUY a STOCK if it FELL in price to $30. Rather than place a LIMIT ORDER to BUY 200 SHARES at $30, you could SELL two “PUT” OPTIONS with a STRIKE PRICE of $30 for, hypothetically, $2 per SHARE.

If the STOCK closes BELOW $30 at EXPIRATION, the “PUT” OPTION would be EXERCISED by the “PUT” BUYER and you would be required to BUY 200 SHARES of STOCK at the $30 STRIKE PRICE.

The benefit of buying your stock through OPTION EXERCISE rather than a LIMIT BUY ORDER is that you get “P.A.I.D.” an additional $2 per SHARE in INCOME, making your NET PURCHASE PRICE only $28.

The great thing about this OPTION SELLING strategy is that you can rest easy without worrying about OPTIONS EXPIRING “WORTHLESS”.

You are not “SPECULATING” on STOCK MOVEMENT within a “LIMITED” time period. Regardless of how the underlying STOCK PRICE moves, SELLING OPTIONS REDUCES THE COST AND DOWNSIDE “RISK” OF YOUR STOCK OWNERSHIP.

The only “RISK”, if you can call it that, is you will generate LESS PROFIT than straight STOCK ownership if the STOCK PRICE “SKYROCKETS” UPWARD.

BUT, missing out on a “SPECULATIVE” UPSIDE GAIN is much less “PAINFUL” than LOSING MONEY...especially under today's crazy conditions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting “WILD” 1,000-point SWINGS.

2.         STOP LOSS/TRAILING STOP UTILIZATION

Here are important tools that keep LOSSES in check: STOP LOSS/TRIALING STOP orders.

One of the most widely used devices for LIMITING the level of LOSS from a dropping/falling STOCK is to place a STOP LOSS order with your broker.

Using this order, you will PRE-SET THE VALUE BASED ON THE MAXIMUM LOSS YOU ARE WILLING TO TOLERATE.

If the “LAST PRICE” falls BELOW the PRE-SET VALUE, the STOP LOSS “AUTOMATICALLY” becomes a “MARKET ORDER” and gets triggered.

As soon as the PRICE FALLS BELOW THE “STOP LEVEL” the position is CLOSED at the CURRENT “MARKET PRICE, which prevents any additional losses.

A TRAILING STOP order and a regular STOP LOSS order appear similar as they equally provide protection of your capital should a stock's price begin to move against you, but that is where their similarities end…

The TRAILING STOP order provides an “ADVANTAGE” over a conventional STOP LOSS because it's more FLEXIBLE.

It allows you to continue PROTECTING your CAPITAL if the price DROPS, but when the price INCREASES, the “TRAILING” feature becomes ACTIVE, enabling an eventual PROTECTION OF PROFIT while still REDUCING THE ”RISK” TO CAPITAL.

NOTE: OVER TIME, THE TRAILING STOP WILL “SELF -ADJUST”, SHIFTING FROM MINIMIZING LOSSES TO PROTECTING PROFITS AS THE PRICE REACHES NEW HIGHS. will self-adjust, shifting from minimizing losses to protecting profits as the price reaches new highs.

During the market's “DIZZYING” UPS and DOWNS, remember your GOALS.

REMEMBER: “PANIC” is neither a useful “EMOTION” nor an investment “STRATEGY”!!!

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Monday, April 7^th, 2025

Per CNBC:

How much do stocks have to drop before trading is halted? The details on market 'circuit breakers'

When stock prices and stock futures fall rapidly in a single session, exchanges implement halts in trading to allow a moment for cooler heads to prevail and avoid market crashes we've seen in the past on Wall Street.

Such moves usually take place during times of extreme market volatility, such as March 2020 — when the Covid-19 pandemic sent global markets tumbling. This time, surging global trade tensions sparked by surprisingly high universal tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump are putting massive pressure on equities, with the sell-off continuing on Monday7th, 2025, April .

Circuit breakers

During the regular hours of 9:30 a.m. ET to 4 p.m. ET, trading in equities may be paused market-wide if declines in the S&P 500 trigger a "circuit breaker." These occur when the benchmark index falls by a certain amount intraday, leading exchanges to briefly stop all trading. All major stock exchanges abide by these trading halts.

There are three circuit breaker levels:

• Level 1: The S&P 500 falls 7% intraday. If this occurs before 3:25 p.m. ET, trading is halted for 15 minutes. If it happens after that time, trading continues unless a level 3 breaker is tripped up.
• Level 2: The S&P 500 drops 13% intraday. If this occurs before 3:25 p.m. ET, trading stops for 15 minutes. If it happens after that time, trading continues unless a level 3 breaker is triggered.
• Level 3: The S&P 500 plunges 20% intraday. At this point, the exchange suspends trading for the remainder of the day.

The benchmark closed Friday's session at 5,074.08. Here are the thresholds the S&P 500 needs to reach during Monday's session the different circuit breakers to be triggered:

• Level 1: 4,718.89
• Level 2: 4,414.45
• Level 3: 4,059.26

'Limit down' futures

In non-U.S. trading hours — between 6 p.m. ET and 9:30 a.m. ET the following day — if S&P futures are down 7%, then trading is halted until traders willing to buy the contract at the "limit down" level emerge.

Russell 2000 futures, which track the small-cap benchmark, briefly reached that threshold overnight, falling 7% before bouncing.

Wall Street is coming off a horrid session. On Friday, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 6%, its worst day since March 16, 2020 — when it sank 11.98%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 5.5%, its biggest one-day decline since June 11, 2020. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 5.8% on Friday and ended the day in a bear market, down more than 20% from its record high set in December.

The selling continued Monday, with the S&P 500 losing 4.5% and entering bear market territory, down more than 20% from a record high set in February.

Correction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 5.5%, its biggest one-day decline since June 11, 2020.

Wednesday, April 2^nd, 2025

Things that are expected to get more “EXPENSIVE” due to Trump's TARIFFS on Wednesday, April 2^nd, 2025

President Donald Trump has dubbed Wednesday, April 2^nd, 2025, as "Liberation Day" a time when he aims to announce a series of tariffs designed to liberate the United States from dependence on foreign goods

What's at “RISK” here are HOUSEHOLD FINANCES, the STATUS OF THE U.S. AS A LEADING GLOBAL FINANCIAL FORCE and, the very MAKEUP OF THE WORLDWIDE ECONOMY.

In his proclamation of 25% AUTO TARIFFS last week, Trump accused other nations of “EXPLOITING” America's TRADE DEFICITS.

"This is the beginning of Liberation Day in America," Trump declared. "We're going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they've been taking over the years. They've taken so much out of our country, friend and foe. And, frankly, friend has been oftentimes much worse than foe."

Economists argue that tariffs would ultimately result in consumers facing HIGHER prices for VEHICLES, GROCERIES, HOUSING and a range of other products, possibly leading to REDUCED CORPORATE PROFITS and SLOWER ECONOMIC GROWTH.

Yet, Trump is convinced that more businesses will start opening factories domestically to sidestep the tariffs, despite the fact that such an industrial pivot could take upwards of three (3) years.

What could get more EXPENSIVE under Trump's tariffs???

CARS

It's been claimed that estimated that TARIFFS on PARTS just from CANADA and MEXICO could lead to costs RISING by roughly $4,000-$10,000, depending on the VEHICLE.

FUEL

Sixty-one percent (61%) of OIL IMPORTED into the US between January and November 2024 came from CANADA.

CAR INSURANCE

A study found that INCREASE PRICES for CAR PARTS could lead to HIGHER AUTO INSURANCE PREMIUMS.

Some ALCOHOLS

MODELO and CORONA - from MEXICO- may get MORE EXPENSIVE under new TARIFFS.

MAPLE SYRUP

You may have to find something else to put on your pancakes. MAPLE SYRUP, from CANADA, is likely to get more EXPENSIVE, according to economists.

HOUSING

A popular LUMBER from CANADA makes up a third (1/3) of that used in the US. These TARIFFS may result in the cost of HOMES INCREASING or FEWER NEW HOMES being developed.

AVOCADOS

Ninety percent (90%) of the AVOCADOS consumed in the US come from MEXICO.

SHOES

A NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION report found that shoppers in the US could pay MORE for FOOTWEAR as a result of TARIFFS, because most SHOES bought in the US come from CHINA.

SMART PHONES

Many of the CHIPS found in SMARTPHONES come from TAIWAN, meaning prices could INCREASE by 37 percent (37%).

PEACE & BLESSINGS,

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.