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Signs of the 18.6-YEAR REAL ESTATE CYCLE Are Everywhere

Monday, July 15th, 2024

Signs of the 18.6-YEAR REAL ESTATE CYCLE Are Everywhere

The “MARKET” tells you everything to know…

BUT, you need to have the right “PERSPECTIVE”.

Reading ”TEA LEAVES” and listening to “MAINSTREAM MEDIA” is one way to invest… but it’s not the best way.

I have been there, I tried…

I got NOWHERE!!!

I began to analyze the “MARKET’s” HIStory and discovered that the “MARKET” has a very definitive “CYCLES” that it adheres to.

One such “CYCLE” is the 18.6 YEAR REAL ESTATE CYCLE that has been driving the economy and the markets for years.

It drove markets to their “PEAKS” and “VALLEYS” and now we are in the “ELEVENTH HOUR” stage of a 18.6. YEAR REAL ESTATE CYCLE.

Here’s what it means…

The “ELEVENTH HOUR” stage is about RECORDS.

Multi-decade and all-time highs across almost every market and asset class has occurred.

And now we are seeing this…

US EQUITIES are hitting “RECORD HIGHS” as TECH STOCKS continue to generate impressive “GAINS”.

At this stage of the 18.6-year REAL ESTATE CYCLE, markets “GROW”, but some companies “GROW” even FASTER.

They break their own records to become MULTI-TRILLION DOLLAR “BEHEMOTHS”!!!

Here’s the latest one:

Nvidia (NVDA) surpasses Apple (AAPL) to become the 2nd-most-valuable company in the world

  • NVDA is now the second-most-valuable company in the world.
  • The ongoing AI boom has helped catapult NVDA’s market valuation to $3.014 trillion.
  • Now bigger than AAPL, AI-chip maker is just behind Microsoft (MSFT) as the world’s biggest company.

Note that the companies that grow the fastest tend to be part of the latest “CRAZE”. In this case, it’s ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI).

YES, the technology that NVDA’s chips power is important. BUT, the “CRAZE” about AI drives companies like NVDA to “ALL_TIME HIGHS” with a force you don’t see often.

AND.. that is a sign that we are in the “ELEVENTH HOUR” stage.

What’s Next???

Well, it would be easy to say that everything goes up… BUT it does NOT!!!

This is where my knowledge of the 18.6-year real estate cycle meets my own investing experience.

Even though most assets go up during the “ELEVENTH HOUR”, not everything does…

This is why I NEVER tell ATWWI FAMILY MEMBERS to just “BUY” the “MARKET”.

You need to be “CAUTIOUS” and do your ATWWI “DRILL DOWN”…

Especially when nobody else is/does!!!

There is the right way to get “P.A.ID” during the “ELEVENTH HOUR”… but almost nobody knows about it.

They just pile into the latest “CRAZE” – be it CRYPTO, AI-related companies, or other things that they don’t OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND but hear about from mainstream media and even their friends.

DON’T DO THAT!!!

Otherwise, you will do what everybody else does…

Which is, LOSE YOUR SHIRT WHEN THE CYCLE TURNS!!!

BUT, by utilizing our ATWWI “DRILL DOWN”, I have been able to MONETIZE the market for years. It’s allowed me to INCREASE my WEALTH in an “INCREDIBLE” way.

NOW, my UNIVERSAL ASSIGMENT (aka: mission) is to help ATWWI FAMILY MEMBERS do the same.

PEACE & BLESSINGS
Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

The American “PARADOX”: Cooling Inflation, Rising Markets, Unhappy Citizens

Thursday, July 11th, 2024

The American “PARADOX”: Cooling Inflation, Rising Markets, Unhappy Citizens

Bottom of Form

The U.S. boasts the strongest economy among developed countries, with an unemployment rate that hovers at 55-year lows. But as my “BELOVED” GRANDMOTHER used to say: “There iss no pleasing some people.”

The American public has shown an unyielding “GRUMPINESS” about the economy. On closer examination, a more “CHEERFUL” reality emerges.

NFLATION is “COOLING”, the FED is dusting off its INTEREST RATE SCISSORS and the U.S. economy is reaching a “NORMALIZED” stride.

This confluence of “POSITIVE” indicators should have YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY questioning why everyone’s still “SULKING”. Spend a few minutes watching the relentless “NEGATIVITY” on cable news and you will get an inkling.

However, although opinion polls consistently reveal widespread “UNHAPPINESS” among the electorate, the economy is “STRONG” and the stock market is primed to extend its “BULL” RUN…

My “BELOVED” GRANDMOTHER raised during the “GREAT DEPRESSION”. During the height of the 1930s DEPRESSSION, the unemployment rate peaked at 25%!!!

During the 1981–1982 “RECESSION”, the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8%!!!

During the “GREAT RECESSION” of 2007-2008, the rate peaked at 9.5%!!!

During the “CORONAVIRUS EPIDEMIC” of 2020-2021, the rate peaked at 13%!!!

As of June 2024, the “SEASONALLY ADJUSTED” UNEMPLOYMENT RATE in the United States was 4.1%... AND yet, I still hear politicians and their partisan shills in the media say that the U.S. jobs market is in the “TOILET” and the economy is going to “HELL”.

IT’s SIMPLY NOT TRUE!!!

But as rock poet JIM MORRISON said in 1969: “Whoever controls the media, controls the mind.”

In some quarters, reality is breaking through and the gloom is lifting. Let’s start with small business. It’s a truism that small companies form the heart of the country’s job creation. “MAIN STREET is starting to catch up to the “OPTIMISM” of “WALL STREET”.

The NFIB Small Business Index, released Tuesday, July 10th, 2024 climbed to 91.5 in June (2024, marking its highest point this year. We’re seeing a gradual recovery in small-business sentiment (see chart).

In parallel, FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL addressed the SENATE BANKING COMMITTEE on Tuesday, July 10th, 2024, striking an “ACCOMMODATIVE” tone but nonetheless reinforcing the need for continued POSITIVE INFLATION DATA BEFORE CONSIDERING RATE CUTS.

Then, POWELL testified before the HOUSE yesterday, Wednesday, July 11th, 2024, where he reiterated the need for the central bank to adhere to its “DUAL MANDATE”. There were no surprises in his remarks on Capitol Hill.

The FED’s “DUAL MANDATE”, which aims to achieve both STABLE PRICES and MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT, requires a delicate balancing act. Powell’s testimony this week has underscored the FED’s “CAUTIOUS” approach.

Although INFLATION is showing “SIGNS” of easing, the central bank remains vigilant. With CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) INFLATION DATA for June (2024) expected to show a modest 0.1% monthly INCREASE and a 3.1% year-over-year RISE, the market anticipates a gradual DECLINE in INFLATION.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile FOOD and ENERGY prices, is forecasted to INCREASE by 0.2% for the month, holding steady at 3.4% annually. After experiencing higher-than-expected INFLATION early in the year (2024), recent data suggests a DOWNWARD trend.

The 3.4% year-over-year INCREASE in May’s (2024) core CPI was the LOWEST since April 2021, hinting at “EASING” INFLATIONARY PRESSURES. Consequently, market expectations are now tilting towards two (2) potential interest rate cuts by the FED in 2024, possibly starting in September (2024). However, as POWELL has made clear on Capitol Hill, the FED’s decision hinges on CONTINUED MODERATION IN INFLATION…

Meanwhile, the stock market is enjoying a boost driven by the fervor surrounding ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI).

Chip-maker Nvidia (NVDA), a leading player in the AI industry, has been a SIGNIFICANT catalyst for this surge.

The S&P 500, buoyed by AI optimism, has seen impressive GAINS, with the index RISING about 16% in the first half of the year (2024). This marks the third-best start to a year since 1999. HIStorical data suggests that when stocks gain over 15% in the first half of the year, they tend to perform well in the second half of the year.

While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, this HIStorical pattern provides a POSITIVE outlook for YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY as we navigate the rest of 2024.

My GRANDMOTHER was no “POLLYANNA”, but she knew the difference between real “SUFFERING” and “WHINING”. Under current conditions, YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY have little to “WHINE” about.

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

The Engine of “PROSPERITY and PROGRESS”

Wednesday, July 10th, 2024

The Engine of “PROSPERITY and PROGRESS”

I was recently reading an old copy of the 100th Anniversary Issue of FORBES.

It featured brief essays from “The 100 Greatest Business Minds,” including individuals like RUPERT MURDOCH, OPRAH WINFREY, PAUL McCARTNEY and ASIAN BILLIONAIRE LI KA-SHING.

These men and women went out of their way to emphasize that successful businesses thrive NOT because of GREED or SELFISHNESS but because they HELP millions achieve their DREAMS.

U2 singer BONO said, “It’s just foolishness not to recognize the creativity you can unlock in the corporate world.”

He added, “Some of the most selfish people I’ve met are artists – I’m one of them – and some of the most selfless people I’ve met are in business, people like WARREN BUFFETT. So, I’ve never had that clichéd view of commerce and culture being different.”

Microsoft (MSFT) founder BILL GATES pointed out that businesses underwrite many thousands of ideas that don’t work out – but the handful that do “REVOLUTIONIZE” our world.

Master “DEALMAKER” and SoftBank founder MASAYOSHI SON said the “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” transformed people’s lives, but our current “INFORMATION REVOLUTION” is creating a sort of “WORLDWIDE SUPERINTELLIGENCE” that will make ENORMOUS contributions to humanity in ways that can’t even be imagined.

BILLIONAIRE JOHN PAUL DeJORIA said that one of the biggest business challenges is to retain talented employees. The best business managers “TREAT” and pay their staff EXACTLY the way that they would want to be “TREATED” themselves.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) founder MORRIS CHANG wrote that business success is the result of building “TRUST” with customers by being willing to fulfill a “PROMISE”, even at high cost – and that this boils down to “INTEGRITY” and “COMMITMENT”.

JACQUELINE NOVOGRATZ, founder of Acumen, said that successful entrepreneurs don’t worry about “REPUTATION”. They focus on “CHARACTER”.

(“REPUTATION” is what people THINK you are… BUT, “CHARACTER” is what you REALLY are.)

Berkshire Hathaway chairman WARREN BUFFETT advised, “Don’t just satisfy your customers – delight them. They are gonna talk to other people. They’re going to come back. Anybody who has happy customers is likely to have a pretty good future.”

JEFF BEZOS, the founder of Amazon (perhaps the world’s most customer-centric company), further amplified this message by pointing out that the internet has created a new era of product “TRANSPARENCY”.

CONSUMERS now share their LIKES (and DISLIKES) so broadly and rapidly on social media that there is far GREATER opportunity for a GREAT product or service to achieve widespread adoption and far less opportunity for a “SHODDY” one to succeed.

These entrepreneurs and business “VISIONARIES” are all “PROVEYORS” of the FREE-MARKET system.

They OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND that business drives innovation, creates jobs, provides billions in tax revenue, improves society’s quality of life and elevates society’s standard of living.

The STOCK MARKET is the “DEMOCRATIZATION” of CAPITAL, allowing ordinary men and women of “MODEST” means to own a FRACTIONAL INTEREST in a thriving company – or a whole portfolio full of them – or find the money necessary to bring a good idea to fruition.

YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY should not forget these things. Or let others succeed in undermining the ENGINE OF PROGRESS AND PROSPERITY that get’s us “P.A.I.D.”

Progress that they either can’t SEE… or don’t OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND.

PEACE & BLESSINGS
Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

The Engine of “PROSPERITY and PROGRESS”

Wednesday, July 10th, 2024

The Engine of “PROSPERITY and PROGRESS”

I was recently reading an old copy of the 100th Anniversary Issue of Forbes.

It featured brief essays from “The 100 Greatest Business Minds,” including individuals like RUPERT MURDOCH, OPRAH WINFREY, PAUL McCARTNEY and ASIAN BILLIONAIRE LI KA-SHING.

These men and women went out of their way to emphasize that successful businesses thrive NOT because of GREED or SELFISHNESS but because they HELP millions achieve their DREAMS.

U2 singer BONO said, “It’s just foolishness not to recognize the creativity you can unlock in the corporate world.”

He added, “Some of the most selfish people I’ve met are artists – I’m one of them – and some of the most selfless people I’ve met are in business, people like WARREN BUFFETT. So, I’ve never had that clichéd view of commerce and culture being different.”

Microsoft (MSFT) founder BILL GATES pointed out that businesses underwrite many thousands of ideas that don’t work out – but the handful that do “REVOLUTIONIZE” our world.

Master “DEALMAKER” and SoftBank founder MASAYOSHI SON said the “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” transformed people’s lives, but our current “INFORMATION REVOLUTION” is creating a sort of “WORLDWIDE SUPERINTELLIGENCE” that will make ENORMOUS contributions to humanity in ways that can’t even be imagined.

BILLIONAIRE JOHN PAUL DeJORIA said that one of the biggest business challenges is to retain talented employees. The best business managers “TREAT” and pay their staff EXACTLY the way that they would want to be “TREATED” themselves.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) founder MORRIS CHANG wrote that business success is the result of building “TRUST” with customers by being willing to fulfill a “PROMISE”, even at high cost – and that this boils down to “INTEGRITY” and “COMMITMENT”.

JACQUELINE NOVOGRATZ, founder of Acumen, said that successful entrepreneurs don’t worry about “REPUTATION”. They focus on “CHARACTER”.

(“REPUTATION” is what people THINK you are… BUT, “CHARACTER” is what you REALLY are.)

Berkshire Hathaway chairman WARREN BUFFETT advised, “Don’t just satisfy your customers – delight them. They are gonna talk to other people. They’re going to come back. Anybody who has happy customers is likely to have a pretty good future.”

JEFF BEZOS, the founder of Amazon (perhaps the world’s most customer-centric company), further amplified this message by pointing out that the internet has created a new era of product “TRANSPARENCY”.

CONSUMERS now share their LIKES (and DISLIKES) so broadly and rapidly on social media that there is far GREATER opportunity for a GREAT product or service to achieve widespread adoption and far less opportunity for a “SHODDY” one to succeed.

These entrepreneurs and business “VISIONARIES” are all “PROVEYORS” of the FREE-MARKET system.

They OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND that business drives innovation, creates jobs, provides billions in tax revenue, improves society’s quality of life and elevates society’s standard of living.

The STOCK MARKET is the “DEMOCRATIZATION” of CAPITAL, allowing ordinary men and women of “MODEST” means to own a FRACTIONAL INTEREST in a thriving company – or a whole portfolio full of them – or find the money necessary to bring a good idea to fruition.

YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY should not forget these things. Or let others succeed in undermining the ENGINE OF PROGRESS AND PROSPERITY that get’s us “P.A.I.D.”

Progress that they either can’t SEE… or don’t OVERSTAND/UNDERSTAND.

PEACE & BLESSINGS
Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

Get “P.A.I.D.” From The “HOTTEST” Sectors

Tuesday, July 9th, 2024

Get “P.A.I.D.” From The “HOTTEST” Sectors

There is a “GROSS” MISCONCEPTION that DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS equal “BORING” stocks.

I have not and will NEVER considered PASSIVE INCOME that INCREASES year after year to be “BORING”!!!

For investors who are constantly chasing the next “HOT” trend, buying a MATURE COMPANY that generates CASH FLOW like taking melatonin with a glass of wine and turning on C-Span – a “SNOOZEFEST”.

BUT it doesn’t have to…

There are plenty of “CUTTING EDGE” companies that happen to be established firms with proven business models. And contrary to popular belief, they are often better investments than companies that are in the early “GROWTH” stage.

That’s because many young companies need to take on SIGNIFICANT DEBT or sell alot of shares (which dilutes shareholders) to fund their businesses until they become CASH FLOW positive.

When you see a company in a “HIGH-GROWTH” sector paying a DIVIDEND”, that tells YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY the company is easily able to fund new initiatives, that it can afford to hire the best people and that its business will still be fine even if the new trend turns out to be a “FAD”.

For example, in the AI space, companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and Broadcom (AVGO) have been profitable for decades, have the WORLD’s BEST TECHNOLOGY and PAY CONSISTENT DIVIDENDS.

 

They have also rewarded shareholders with strong price performance. Microsoft is up nearly 300% in the past five (5) years, and Broadcom has QUADRUPLED in just over a year and a half.

Nothing “BORING” about those numbers!!!

Now, those stocks still might fall if we hit a “BEAR” MARKET or if AI doesn’t become the GIANT trend we expect. BUT, they would likely fall much LESS than “EARLIER-STAGE” companies would – and their DIVIDENDS would DECREASE the “STING” even more.

Beyond AI, there are plenty of other “HOT” trends where YOU, ME, WE the ATWWI FAMILY can get “P.A.I.D.” DIVIDENDS while still gaining exposure to “GAME-CHANGING” TECHNOLOGY.

There are even some EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (ETFs)– and a few “RARE” companies – that allow YOU ME WE the ATWWI to get “P.A.I.D.” DIVIDENDS from CRYPTO.

I especially like to collect income from “BIOPHARMA” companies with deep product portfolios and pipelines…

One of my favorites is AbbVie (ABBV), whose stock has more than DOUBLED over the past five (5) years and has a 3.7% yield. If you had bought it seven (7) years ago when the stock was trading in the low $60s, you would have a DOUBLE DIGIT YIELD today.

 

I enjoy investing in new TECHNOLOGY and EXCITING “TRENDS”…

BUT, I MUST get “P.A.I.D.” during the process, and I MUST have a LOWER “RISK” INDEX during the company’s placement in my portfolio.

I had a FRONT ROW SEAT for the “DOT-COM” BOOM/BUST, and I remember how many companies “IMPLODED”!!!.

Very few of them were DIVIDEND PAYERS…

So go ahead and play the “HOT” NEW “TRENDS”. BUT do it the “INTELLIGENT” way – by “BUYING” DIVIDEND PAYERS – so you can get “P.A.I.D.” via DIVIDENDS, INCOME and, CAPITAL GAINS!!!

PEACE & BLESSINGS

Kenneth Reaves, Ph.D.

The Ask The Wiz Wealth Institute is not an investment advisor. We strive to be educational and informative community servants.
 

Profits And Income Daily (P.A.I.D.™)

The Ask The Wiz Wealth Institute's proprietary P.A.I.D.™ indicator system alert allows ATWWI members to maximize profits "REAL TIME" !!!

The ATWWI P.A.I.D.™ indicator system alert notifies ATWWI members via text message, anytime / 24 hours a day / per market conditions, sent directly to their cell phones, indicating both domestic and international market conditions that are monetizable for hefty profits.

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